Population dynamics and vulnerability: Regional pathways in Spain

A new paper by Osama Damoun, Jordi Bayona and Andreu Domingo, titled “Population Dynamics and Vulnerability: Regional Pathways in Spain, 2002–2021”, has been published in Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy (2025). The study addresses two core objectives:

1. To measure population change at regional level by grouping different regions by a vulnerability index assessing the relationship between demographic change and socioeconomic characteristics.

2. To identify regional disparities in demographic changes and whether regions converge or diverge.

Drawing on regional data from 2002 to 2021, the authors highlight the growing influence of international migration, particularly following the 2008 crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, and show how migration is becoming the main driver of population change, overtaking natural population growth in most regions.

The analysis also reveals that regions in the first, second, and third quartiles of socioeconomic vulnerability, often associated with sectors such as intensive agriculture and tourism, have experienced the highest growth rates in the Migration Share of Turnover. Particularly in terms of international and internal migration of foreigners.

This paper contributes to Work Package 5 of the PREMIUM_EU project, which applies Fast Demography indicators and a Vulnerability Index at the regional level across five countries: Spain, the Netherlands, Denmark, Austria, and Sweden. The Spanish case lays a methodological foundation for comparative analysis across the partner countries.

Preliminary results were previously shared at the Population Association of America (PAA) annual meeting in Columbus and at a project seminar in Copenhagen.