2025 August 20
This summer, PREMIUM_EU researcher Marianne Tønnessen has been on the move – not as a migrant, but as a presenter at major demographic and migration conferences in Italy, Denmark and Scotland. With PREMIUM_EU’s first round of results ready, researchers are in high demand across Europe to share insights that are both timely and politically relevant.
At PopDays in Cagliari, the Nordic Demographic Symposium in Copenhagen and the MigrantLife symposium at St Andrews, Marianne presented new findings on how emigration can contribute to a less urbanized immigrant population. The research is now being developed into a scientific paper.
Tracking movement, within and beyond Norway
Using detailed Norwegian register data, Marianne has followed immigrants’ movements both within Norway and out of the country during their first ten years of settlement. The analysis reveals clear differences depending on why people came:
- Refugees mostly remain in Norway and often move from rural to more central areas.
- Labour and education migrants, as well as Nordic citizens, are much more likely to emigrate again – especially those who first settled in the capital area.
A third factor often overlooked
Traditionally, researchers have explained changes in the geographic distribution of immigrants in Western countries by looking at two factors: where immigrants first settle, and their later internal migration. But Marianne highlights a third and often overlooked factor: selective emigration.
When immigrants in urban areas are more likely to leave the country than those in rural regions, the immigrant population that remains becomes less urbanized.
From research to policy relevance
In Norway, internal migration among immigrants tends to centralize, especially among refugees. Yet the
highest rates of emigration are found in the most urban areas. The result: emigration has offset urbanizing trends, in some cases outweighing the effects of internal migration.
These insights matter beyond Norway. As Europe grapples with population decline in vulnerable regions, understanding how different migrant groups move, stay, or leave is crucial. PREMIUM_EU’s mission is to provide policymakers with evidence and tools to manage mobility in ways that strengthen regional development, not weaken it.
Marianne’s findings underscore the project’s broader aim: migration is not only about who comes in, but also who leaves and where they leave from.
